It's not a household name, for sure. But this two-time Academy Award winner (for "Bram Stoker's Dracula" and "Mrs. Doubtfire") is the red-hot favorite to win the Oscar in the best makeup category, for his work taking Brad Pitt from decrepitude to infancy in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button."

His colleagues in the visual effects department are likely to join him, along with the art direction team and possibly costume designer Jacqueline West, taking "Button's" tally to four awards.

But my hunch is that this will prove the outer limit of the Academy's love for David Fincher's epic. Not a good return on 13 nominations.

On the other hand, I predict that "Slumdog Millionaire" will reap the rewards, with as many as seven Oscars from 10 nominations, including best picture and best director for Danny Boyle. (A full sweep is impossible, as composer A.R. Rahman has been nominated against himself in the best song category. "Slumdog" will also probably miss out for sound editing and sound mixing, two categories that favor big-budget films.) If I'm right, it will be a fairy-tale ending for what is in many respects a fairy tale of a movie, albeit a fairy tale punctuated with sometimes distressingly grim episodes of violence and poverty.

Still, upsets do happen. Four years ago, all the pundits (including this one) had "Brokeback Mountain" pegged for best picture. Instead, a left-field movie that had been kicking around for months surged from behind and "Crash"-ed the party.

It could happen again, but this year "Slumdog" is -- or at least began as -- the left-field movie. The surprise came when American audiences embraced the energy and passion (the underdog spirit, if you will) of Boyle's film.